The U.S. presidential race has entered a phase of increased unpredictability following the first debate between President Joe Biden and his rival, Donald Trump. The televised debate on Thursday saw both candidates exchanging fiery rhetoric on a range of issues including diplomacy and the economy.
Many U.S. media outlets declared the 81-year-old incumbent as the presumed loser in the debate, emphasizing ongoing concerns about his age and performance. Consequently, there is a growing chorus among Democrats and Biden supporters for a change in the presidential candidate. Major news organizations are now examining potential scenarios and alternative candidates in case Biden decides to withdraw from the race.
With only four months left until the November presidential election, the race has become more complicated. Given the profound implications of the U.S. election outcome for the global community, recent developments signal a significant impact on the international stage.
Currently, Biden is resisting calls
to step down and abandon his candidacy, with many Democrats urging him to stay in the race, arguing that a change may not necessarily ensure victory in the presidential vote. The controversy surrounding his candidacy is unlikely to diminish soon.
The growing uncertainty in the U.S. presidential competition is stoking anxiety among U.S. allies such as South Korea. If Trump maintains the advantage, Seoul will need to prepare for a potential second term under his administration. Biden has been emphasizing strengthened relations with allies, whereas Trump favors transactional relationships.
A new Trump administration will significantly alter U.S. relations with the European Union, and its Asian allies such as South Korea and Japan. Diplomatic authorities should engage in proactive measures, leveraging extensive networks while remaining mindful of potential changes in future administrations.
Despite Trump and his associates indicating a commitment to strengthening trilateral relations, uncertainty persists. Tru
mp has underscored the necessity of withdrawing or reducing the number of U.S. forces stationed in South Korea. In an interview with Time in April, he reiterated a demand to Seoul that could significantly increase the costs of hosting U.S. troops in South Korea from the current 1.2 trillion won ($870 million).
Many research institutes also predict that Trump will adopt a tougher stance toward Asian allies, especially Seoul. His hard-line policies may increase calls for South Korea to pursue nuclear armament. This demand has gained momentum due to warming relations between Moscow and Pyongyang, in addition to North Korea’s ongoing military provocations and nuclear buildup campaigns.
Under Trump’s leadership, there is a strong likelihood that negotiations between North Korea and the U.S. will resume, which have been stalled since the collapse of the summit in Hanoi in 2019. Recently, Trump aides have suggested the importance of engaging in dialogue with North Korea if there are indications that Pyongyang migh
t halt its nuclear weapons program, even if complete denuclearization is not achieved. This situation poses an increased security risk for South Korea.
It is challenging to accurately predict the potential impact of the U.S. election on the Korean Peninsula. President Yoon Suk Yeol and his security and diplomatic aides should intensify efforts to prepare for various possible scenarios.
Regardless of the election outcome, there is a growing imperative to strengthen the alliance with the U.S. and enhance extended deterrence against potential North Korean provocations. The Yoon administration should initiate negotiations with the U.S. to revise the nuclear agreement and secure increased nuclear capabilities for Seoul. In the economic realm, efforts should focus on bolstering bilateral cooperation, particularly technological alliances spanning industries such as semiconductors, AI, batteries, and aerospace. Additionally, measures should be taken to safeguard Korean companies investing in the U.S. from potential
discriminatory treatment under new protectionist policies by a new U.S. administration.
Source: Yonhap News Agency